@All_Weather_Fan

Fantasy Fun: From Felix Fermin to Frank Fucarino

After catching the Fermin Fantasy Fever from ESPN Stats & Info’s Mark Simon (@msimonespn), my friend Drew proposed trying this for the 2012-2013 NBA season as well.

(Final Fermin Update: I held onto my slim lead and edged out a victory of 49.5 WAR to the 49.0 WAR of Drew’s team).

As a refresher, the Fermin Fantasy game was a 1-on-1 game using on the Wins-Above-Replacement (WAR) as the only stat. (More info here).

Here’s an overview of our Frank Fucarino Fantasy game for the NBA. Based on the Felix Fermin game, with a few tweaks/additions:

• Name: The Frank Fucarino League. Drew found a few alliterative F.F. names of obscure players and we both agreed this was the best one.
• Statistic: Win Shares (WS). This worked out well, as with Wins-Above-Replacement (WAR), both of us are novices when it comes to advanced metrics for the NBA. We decided to go with what looks like (at least to us) the closest thing to WAR we cold find: Win Shares (WS).

(Note: As a fan of Mr. Simon and ESPN’s Baseball Today podcast, I like this stat because it reminds me of his posts and comments about Win-Probability-Added)

• Draft Pick Order: Drew picked a random player (Ronnie Seikaly), I picked a random stat (Career 3PT%), we both guessed. My guess: .235 / Drew’s guess: .14.  Actual: .188.  My guess was was .001 closer than Drew’s and I received the first pick. 
• Draft Round Order (teams): We went  team by team, alphabetically from Atlanta to Washington. 
• Draft Style:  Snake. Round 1: Danny, Drew. Round 2: Drew, Danny….etc.
• Special Rules: For each team, the player picking second (player B) would eliminate 3 players from that team. Player A then picks his player for that team, then Player B. Same process for the next round/team. 
• Round 31 - Wild Card Pick: After rounds 1-30 (each NBA team). We each picked a Wild Card player. This could be any player not previously picked or eliminated. 
• Round 32 -Bomb Pick: After the Wild Card Round picks, the next round was a little different. We each picked a player for the other’s team. This pick was designed for us to pick a player for the other team that we thought would “bomb” with (ideally) a negative WS total for the season.  (Could not be player already eliminated or picked, etc)
• Tiebreaker - Team Captains:  Our Fermin game was very close this year (I won by 0.5 WAR), so I suggested we each pick a “Team Captain”. The Team Captain would be an honorary title for the team/player and would only be important in the event of a tie. The first and only tiebreaker would be the WS scores of our two Captains. If we need a 2nd tiebreaker, that’d be AWESOME. (Team Danny: Serge Ibaka ; Team Drew: Steve Nash)
• Side Bet - Least Valuable Fuc (LVF): For fun, we each picked the guy on our team that we thought would be the least valuable (other than our “bomb” or “Wild Card” guys). If you get your LVF correct, the other guy buys a round of beer. (Team Danny LVF Guess: Jonas Jerebko ; Team Drew LVP Guess: Jan Vesely)

So that’s it. It took us about an hour to do the draft and it was an incredibly fun experiment for us sports nerds. I recommend you give it a try too!

And may the best man win.

Rosters

Team DREW  / Team DANNY

ATLANTA HAWKS: ZAZA PACHULIA  / LOU WILLIAMS

BOSTON CELTICS: JASON TERRY /JEFF GREEN

BROOKLYN NETS: BROOK LOPEZ / KRIS HUMPHRIES

CHARLOTTE BOBCATS: BISMACK BIYOMBO / BEN GORDON

CHICAGO BULLS: KIRK HINRICH / RICHARD HAMILTON

CLEVELAND CAVALIERS: TRISTAN THOMPSON / TYLER ZELLER

DALLAS MAVERICKS: OJ MAYO / SHAWN MARION

DENVER NUGGETS: JAVALE MCGEE / KENETH FARIED

DETROIT PISTONS: TAYSHAUN PRINCE / JONAS JEREBKO

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS: KLAY THOMPSON / HARRISON BARNES

HOUSTON ROCKETS: CHANDLER PARSONS / OMER ASIK

INDIANA PACERS: PAUL GEORGE / GEORGE HILL

LA CLIPPERS: JAMAL CRAWFORD / ERIC BLEDSOE

LA LAKERS: STEVE NASH / ANTAWN JAMISON

MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES: TONY ALLEN / ZACH RANDOPH

MIAMI HEAT: RAY ALLEN / MARIO CHALMERS

MILWAUKEE BUCKS: DREW GOODEN / SAMUEL DALEMBERT

MINNESOTA T-WOLVES: ANDREI KIRILENKO / BRANDON ROY

NEW ORLEANS HORNETS: GREIVIS VAZQUEZ / RYAN ANDERSON

NY KNICKS: RAYMOND FELTON / JR SMITH

OKC THUNDER: KENDRICK PERKINS / SERGE IBAKA

ORLANDO MAGIC: HEDO TURKOGLU / GUSTAVO AYON

PHILADELPHIA 76ers: JASON RICHARDSON / THADDEAUS YOUNG

PHOENIX SUNS: MICHAEL BEASLEY / MARKIEFF MORRIS

PORTLAND TRAILBLAZERS: WESLEY MATTHEWS / JJ HICKSON

SACRAMENTO KINGS: JASON THOMPSON / MARCUS THORNTON

SAN ANTONIO SPURS: DANNY GREEN / KAWHI LEONARD

TORONTO RAPTORS: JOSE CALDERON / JONAS VALANCIUNAS

UTAH JAZZ: GORDON HAYWARD / MARVIN WILLIAMS

WASHINGTON WIZARDS: JAN VESELY / JORDAN CRAWFORD

*WILD CARD:  ELTON BRAND / JARED SULLINGER

**BOMB (chosen by the other): DANIEL GIBSON / QUENTIN RICHARDSON

RACE OF THE YEAR: Danny vs. Drew 2012 Felix Fermin Fantasy League (inspired by @msimonespn)

This post is mostly in hopes that Mark Simon and the guys at ESPN’s Baseball Today podcast are interested in some fellow baseball nerds trying a Fermin league of their own. Or, if you stumbled across my April 9th post and had been dying to know how it turned out. I’d also recommend this game to anyone who enjoys baseball and an easy way to try a different spin on fantasy sports. 

Earlier in the season, when I had intentions of writing up my own weekly MLB -Power Rankings in response to the weekly Power Rankings from Mark Simon and Eric Karabell (wait til next year, I guess…), I ran with another suggestion from the Baseball Today podcast: Participating in an honorary “Felix Fermin” one-on-one fantasy game. I pitched the idea to my friend Drew, he loved it, and we jumped in.

Quick Note: Why is it named after Felix Fermin?

Here’s the overview from my April 9 post, along with a few fun details we decided upon:

Here’s what my friend Drew & I did, taking notes from what Mark Simon mentioned on the podcast:

• Two managers, head-to-head
• Baseball Reference WAR (Wins Above Replacement) is the only category. 
• Scores will be tallied at the end of the 2012 regular season. 
• Each manager picks one player from each team. 
• Managers can block (what they believe to be) the top 5 players on each team.

So Drew & I used MLBdepthcharts.com and drafted based on our gut. Neither of us are well versed in career/season WAR tendencies, so these were gut picks. 

We weren’t exactly sure how the blocking was supposed to work, so we came up with a format:

• we went team-by-team down the divisions, as listed on mlbdepthcharts.com 
• the manager picking 2nd for each team chooses the five players to block for both managers
• Manager 1 picks, Manager 2 picks
• Snake style draft, so on the next team Manager 1 blocks the players, Manager 2 picks first, Manger 1 picks next…and so on…
• We decided we wanted to make sure we each had at least one player at every position. (C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, LF, CF, RF, DH, SP, RP). [both of us wound up with a full-ish staff of pitchers, so a somewhat realistic fantasy roster. Also, we both did not pick a 2B until the last division (NL West)]
• 1st pick (Drew) was decided randomly based on the number of letters in the name of the 7th batter in last night’s ESPN Sunday Night Baseball game between the Rangers & White Sox. Drew was odd, I was even, Paul Konerko was the game’s 7th batter and awarded Drew the first pick.

#MLB Mid-season Predictions for 2012

See previous post for chart of preseason predictions versus current record vs current pace.

MID 2012 PREDICTION

NYY - 95***

BOS - 86*

TB - 85

BAL - 83

TOR - 78

CHW - 87***

DET - 82

CLE - 81

KC - 77

MIN - 74

TEX - 99***

LAA - 96**

OAK - 77

SEA - 68

WAS - 91***

ATL - 86**

NYM - 84

MIA - 82

PHI - 76

CIN - 89***

PIT - 86*

STL - 85

MIL - 78

CHC - 65

HOU - 63

SF - 89***

LAD - 84

ARI - 84

SD - 61

COL - 59

Mid season Predictions

·         AL East

o   Yankees run away

o   Red Sox thrive with infusion of stars returning from injury, make playoffs

o   Rays keep grinding, but this isn’t 2011. Red Sox win a close WC berth this time.

o   Orioles fall off the pace, but should be ecstatic about this surprise season

o   Blue Jays can’t rebound from injuries, look to 2013

·         AL Central

o   White Sox, not close

o   Tigers play closer to their potential, but fall short of playoffs & division

o   Indians again can’t make this last

o   Royals rebound enough to once again have people talking potential

o   Twins are at least excited about a healthy Joe Mauer and budding Trevor Plouffe

·         AL West

o   Rangers acquire big name, win division, same old story

o   Angels almost catch up, make everyone in April look stupid. MIKE TROUT.

o   Athletics once again prove Billy Beane’s a smart man. Solid season. Exciting young team.

o   I feel bad for Mariners fans even though the Cubs finish worse. Bad offense.

·         NL East

o   Nationals can’t quite keep up this pace, but good news is neither can anyone else

o   Braves acquire Greinke/Garza/Dempster and do Braves things

o   Mets can’t write fairytale. Sandy Alderson (big part of moneyball A’s) is SMART.

o   Big names can’t stop Marlins from disappointing in season one in their ugly ballpark.

o   I told you the Phillies wouldn’t match last year’s 100 wins. Way worse than I thought.

·         NL Central

o   Any of top 3 can win, but I think the Reds are best.

o   Magical things (see: Andrew McCutchen / pitching) happening with the Pirates.

o   Cardinals show their strength, but can’t go the distance with injuries to key players.

o   The Brewers are more in this race than everyone thinks, but they decide to sell.

o   Young Cubs core shows a little promise despite many veterans sold off.

o   The Astros out-tank the Cubs.

·         NL West

o   Giants show the value of pitching depth despite Lincecum’s off year

o   Dodgers learn what the 2011 Indians and Pirates felt in the second half

o   Diamondbacks can’t overcome bad start

o   Padres are terrible but their ballpark & pitching puts them in 2^nd to last

o   Rockies pitching is terrible in and out of Coors field

·         Awards

o   AL MVP - Mike Trout (the writers get swept up by this kid)

o   AL CY YOUNG - Jered Weaver (this race is going to be close)

o   AL ROOKIE - Mike Trout (is unreal)

o   AL MANAGER - Robin Ventura (staying with this pick, good work so far)

o   NL MVP - Andrew McCutchen (hard for writers to ignore if Pirates make playoffs)

o   NL CY YOUNG - Zack Greinke (which team will he be on though?)

o   NL ROOKIE - Bryce Harper

o   NL MANAGER - Davey Johnson

·         Playoffs

o   ALWC: Angels over Red Sox in Anaheim. Angels SP is better suited for 1 game playoff.

o   NLWC: Braves over Pirates in Atlanta. I think Matt Garza is winning pitcher.

o   ALDS: Angels over Rangers in 5 / White Sox over Yankees in 5.

o   NLDS: Nationals over Braves in 5 / Giants over Reds in 4

o   ALCS: Angels over White Sox in 7.

o   NLCS: Giants over Nationals in 5.

o   World Series: Angels over Giants in 6. Sticking with this pick, but I think the Giants push it to 6 or 7. Albert Pujols does Albert Pujols things, and Mike Trout owns baseball.

·         Trades

o   Ryan Dempster to Dodgers

o   Matt Garza to Braves

o   Zack Greinke to Rangers

o   Shane Victorino to Dodgers

o   Cole Hamels stays put

o   Alfonso Soriano to Indians … in August waiver wire deal, Cubs pay all but $3M

o   Carlos Quentin to Reds

o   Marco Scutaro to Tigers

o   Brett Myers to Mets

o   Houston Street to Cardinals

o   Jed Lowrie to Pirates

o   Denard Span to Nationals

o   Josh Willingham to Pirates

MLB Power Rankings: Week 5

I missed a few weeks there, but it’s time to check back in with the Power Rankings. I’m going to try just listing mine and I will encourage you to check out the ESPN Baseball Today Podcast for theirs. 

Power Rankings

1. Texas (18-10): +47 run differential and solid from top to bottom. If Yu Darvish can continue to pitch like a legitimate Ace, they should be October favorites. 
2. Tampa Bay (19-10): They had a tough April schedule and all they did was dominate, especially at home. Longoria injury hurts for now, but may improve their depth later in the year with some of these guys getting some more reps.
3. St. Louis (17-11): An incredible +62 run differential, playing well despite some significant injuries. They’re going to eat the NL Central alive. We’ll see if their pitching is up for the task in October.
4. Baltimore (19-9): Their pitching and just about everything has exceeded expectations. I’m giving them credit for their solid wins over New York and Boston, but I fully expect this team to crash down to reality before the trading deadline. I agree with Keith Law: they are the 2012 version of the Pirates and Indians.
5. Atlanta (18-11): They are doing what the Braves do, win at a pretty good clip. This team doesn’t excite me at all, but they should be in the heat of the  NL East race all year.
6. Washington (18-10): What an exciting team. They’re pitching and Bryce Harper excitement has carried them through some tough injuries and they have slowed down a bit. I’m ranking them here based more on their momentum and Nattitude, because these injuries are going to hurt them for awhile.
7. New York Yankees (15-13): Under performing, but this team will be among the best all year. Rivera injury is bad for baseball, I hope to see him pitch in 2013.
8. Los Angeles Dodgers (18-10): Exciting start, but too many holes to be legit contenders. They’ll fight for the NL West most of the year (and could win), but I think they’re a year or two away from being a force. A force newly powered by a lot of money.
9. Cleveland (16-11): The WINdians are starting well again. They’re here because no body else stands out.
10. Detroit (14-13): Probably better than the Indians, but not playing like it. 

So far it looks like Texas and St. Louis are the class of each league and the other elite teams are still going through some growing pains. Statistically May and June are better indicators of final standings than April, so we should begin to see things look more logical in the next month or two.

Bottom 5

26. Boston (11-16): If teams can be in the top 10 based on momentum and hot starts, the Sawx clearly deserve to be here based on their terrible pitching and bottom 5 record. My 4th place prediction is looking about right so far….unless the Orioles push them down to 5th place in the AL East.

27. Chicago Cubs (11-17): Some nice scrappy victories of late, and if Carlos Marmol didn’t lose a few games they’d be riding some momentum towards the middle of the pack. That said, this team is going to lose ugly and win ugly all season.

28. Kansas City (9-18): Gets the nod because they’re 6-4 in their last ten and didn’t just lose their closer to the DL.

29. San Diego (9-20): Cameron Maybin needs to start hitting better. Also, 4-6 in their last 10 and Andrew Cashner’s command does not bode well for closing games right now.

30. Minnesota (7-20): I feel really bad for my friends who are Twins fans. 

Favorite moment of the week: Bryce Harper stealing home. Baseball is awesome.

MLB Power Rankings: Week 2

Continuing to compare my rankings with those of Eric Karabell & Mark Simon of ESPN’s Baseball Today podcast.

On today’s show, the two expressed their difference in “Power Rankings” philosophy. Eric leans more towards teams that he thinks are the best overall (more lenient on bad weeks, small samples, etc) with smaller variances and less dramatic movement in his rankings. Mark takes recent performance more into account, allowing record and hot/cold streaks to move teams up/down a larger number of spots. It looks like I lean more towards Mark’s approach, especially early in the year when teams can play themselves surprisingly into/out of contention. By July or April it will be easier to see if teams like the Dodgers are more pretenders riding hot starts, or actually legit. 

Grantland’s Jonah Keri has a weekly feature ranking all 30 teams as well. He’s another favorite of mine, so I have added him to the weekly post.

Power Rankings - Week 2:

Danny (@All_Weather_Fan)

1. Rangers (8-2): strong start all around, 4.5 up on the Angels already
2. Tigers (6-3): winning the games they should, looking solid
3. Cardinals (7-3): dominating despite key players missing games to injury
4. Yankees (5-4): Bounced back from 0-3 well, good series versus Angels
5. Dodgers (9-1): Super hot start, and that division is winnable. They get the 5 spot since I agree with Mark Simon that those top 4 teams look the best so far.
6. Rays (5-5): Losing 3 of 4 to the Red Sox is excusable, but they need wins in this brutal opening stretch.
7. Diamondbacks (6-3): #FreeTrevorBauer
8. Nationals (7-3): Looking more contender than pretender so far.
9. Blue Jays (5-4): They will be in this race all year.
10. Angels (3-6): Still a good team.
     
11. White Sox (5-3): Their record was way better than most thought last year, and they are bouncing back. Could be wild card contenders.

Bottom Five:

• A’s (4-6): Losing a lot to Seattle is not good
• Cubs (3-7): Can win games…when they score 8+ on a fluke.
• Pirates (3-6): Not scoring much, and their pitching will not hold up.
• Twins (2-7): Josh Willingham needs to wake up Morneau & Mauer.
• Padres (2-8): Bad team.

Eric Karabell (ESPN Baseball Today)

1. Rangers
2. Yankees
3. Rays
4. Tigers
5. Cardinals
6. Angels
7. Phillies
8. Red Sox
9. Diamondbacks
10. Dodgers

Bottom Five: 

• (A’s)
• (Pirates)
• Astros
• Padres
• Twins

Mark Simon (ESPN Baseball Today)

1. Tigers
2. Rangers
3. Yankees
4. Cardinals
5. Dodgers
6. Diamondbacks
7. Nationals
8. Red Sox
9. Blue Jays
10. Angels

Bottom Five: 

• A’s
• Cubs
• Twins
• Pirates
• Padres

Jonah Keri (Grantland)

1. Rangers
2. Tigers
3. Cardinals
4. Dodgers
5. Diamondbacks
6. Yankees
7. Nationals
8. Blue Jays
9. Red Sox
10. Rays

Bottom 5:

• Pirates
• Cubs
• Royals
• Padres
• Twins

My First Ever “Fermin” Fantasy Draft (inspired by @msimonespn)

Another fun idea from the ESPN Baseball Today podcast. Mark Simon (@msimonespn) promoted a 1-on-1 Fantasy baseball draft inspired by Felix Fermin. While I can’t recall why Fermin inspired the name/game [UPDATE: Mark is awesome, read this, and provided the answer], I will surely advocate for this cool fantasy game.

Here’s what my friend Drew & I did, taking notes from what Mark Simon mentioned on the podcast:

• Two managers, head-to-head
• Baseball Reference WAR is the only category. 
• Scores will be tallied at the end of the 2012 regular season. 
• Each manager picks one player from each team. 
• Managers can block (what they believe to be) the top 5 players on each team.

So Drew & I used MLBdepthcharts.com and drafted based on our gut. Neither of us are well versed in career/season WAR tendencies, so these were gut picks. 

We weren’t exactly sure how the blocking was supposed to work, so we came up with a format:

• we went team-by-team down the divisions, as listed on mlbdepthcharts.com 
• the manager picking 2nd for each team chooses the five players to block for both managers
• Manager 1 picks, Manager 2 picks
• Snake style draft, so on the next team Manager 1 blocks the players, Manager 2 picks first, Manger 1 picks next…and so on…
• We decided we wanted to make sure we each had at least one player at every position. (C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, LF, CF, RF, DH, SP, RP). [both of us wound up with a full-ish staff of pitchers, so a somewhat realistic fantasy roster. Also, we both did not pick a 2B until the last division (NL West)]
• 1st pick (Drew) was decided randomly based on the number of letters in the name of the 7th batter in last night’s ESPN Sunday Night Baseball game between the Rangers & White Sox. Drew was odd, I was even, Paul Konerko was the game’s 7th batter and awarded Drew the first pick.

Drew

• Wilson Ramos, WAS
• Mark Trumbo, LAA
• Mark Ellis, LAD
• Aramis Ramirez, MIL
• Jhonny Peralta, DET
• Nolan Reimold, BAL
• Lorenzo Cain, KC
• Nelson Cruz, TEX
• Edwin Encarnacion, TOR
• Josh Beckett, BOS
• Mariano Rivera, NYY
• Matt Moore, TB
• Chris Sale, CHW
• Ubaldo Jiminez, CLE
• Jason Heyward, ATL
• Ricky Nolasco, MIA
• Frank Francisco, NYM
• Brandon League, SEA
• Bartolo Colon, OAK
• Shane Victorino, PHI
• Josh Willingham, MIN
• Bryan LaHair, CHC
• Zack Cozart, CIN
• Chris Johnson, HOU
• Casey McGeehee, PIT
• Carlos Beltran, STL
• Chris Young, ARZ
• Juan Nicasio, COL
• Jesus Guzman, SD
• Brian Wilson, SF

Danny

• Mike Napoli, TEX
• Freddie Freeman, ATL
• Aaron Hill, ARZ
• Brent Morel, CHW
• Yunel Escobar, TOR
• Carl Crawford, BOS
• B.J. Upton, TB
• Josh Reddick, OAK
• Kendrys Morales, LAA
• Brian Matusz, BAL
• Vinnie Pestano, CLE
• Brett Gardner, NYY
• Delmon Young, DET
• Aaron Crow, KC
• Ben Revere, MIN
• Jason Vargas, SEA
• Mark Beurhle, MIA
• Ruben Tejada, NYM
• Hunter Pence, PHI
• Tyler Clippard, WAS
• David DeJesus, CHC
• Scott Rolen, CIN
• Jed Lowrie, HOU
• Corey Hart, MIL
• Jose Tabata, PIT
• David Freese, STL
• Jhoulys Chacin, COL
• Kenley Jansen, LAD
• Andrew Cashner, SD
• Melky Cabrera, SF

I had a lot of fun doing this, which was enhanced by some light discussion about it with Mark Simon on twitter via my @ddpcratz handle (@allweatherfan is my cubs/baseball only handle to spare my friends & followers). He shared his brain freeze error (Doug Fister over Alex Avila) and was curious who we blocked on the loaded Yankees & Red Sox teams.

MLB Power Rankings: Week 1

Midway through the 2011 Baseball season I discovered ESPN’s Baseball Today podcast and quickly became an avid fan. In my effort to begin logging my baseball opinions / predictions, I intend to list my Power Rankings each week. Eric Karabell & Mark Simon do this each Monday and I’m always intrigued by the discussion and difference of opinions.

Power Rankings - Week 1:

Danny (@All_Weather_Fan)

1. Rays
2. Tigers
3. Rangers
4. Angels
5. Cardinals
6. Yankees
7. Blue Jays
8. Diamondbacks
9. Phillies
10. Marlins

Eric Karabell (ESPN Baseball Today)

1. Rangers
2. Rays
3. Yankees
4. Angels
5. Tigers
6. Cardinals
7. Phillies
8. Giants
9. Diamondbacks
10. Blue Jays

Mark Simon (ESPN Baseball Today)

1. Tigers
2. Cardinals
3. Angels
4. Yankees
5. Diamondbacks
6. Rangers
7. Phillies
8. Rays
9. Reds
10. Royals

Bottom Five: 26. Cubs 27. Padres 28. Astros 29. A’s 30. Twins

MLB Predictions for 2012

MLB 2012 PREDICTIONS

*** Division                       **Wild Card 1                    *Wild Card 2

AL EAST 2012 PREDICTION

NYY - 94***

TB - 90**

TOR - 88

BOS - 87

BAL - 63

AL CENTRAL 2012 PREDICTION

DET - 88***

CHW - 82

MIN - 82

CLE - 78

KC - 78

AL WEST 2012 PREDICTION

LAA - 92***

TEX - 90*

OAK - 75

SEA - 70

NL EAST 2012 PREDICTION

MIA - 88***

WSH - 87**

PHI - 86

ATL - 82

NYM - 71

NL CENTRAL 2012 PREDICTION

STL - 87***

MIL - 86*

CIN - 85

CHC - 75

PIT - 74

HOU - 52

NL WEST 2012 PREDICTION

SF - 86***

ARZ - 85

LAD - 82

COL - 81

SD - 66

AL EAST:  Pitching is the story of this division. I think the Yankees have improved their roster, but the division has gotten stronger. New York’s improved rotational depth gives them the division despite regression on offense (see: Granderson’s HR total drops by 15). The Rays pitching, DEFENSE, and a big year from everyone’s AL MVP pick, Evan Longoria, once again have the Rays squeaking into the playoffs. My bold prediction for this division is that the young collection of arms in the Blue Jays rotation take a step forward and make this a four-team race; and on the final day, Toronto jumps past Boston for third place. Age, lack of pitching, Carl Crawford’s wrist, and a hangover from 2011 contribute to a fourth place finish for the Red Sox. Insane? In 2010 and 2011 Boston won 89 & 88 wins respectively. I just don’t think this year’s team is better (see: bullpen, rotation, manager). Everybody should feel bad for Orioles fans. Their owner and GM are the most maligned by industry people and the future looks bleak with the strength and budgets of these other four teams. Fantasy Prediction: Manny Machado will be a bright spot in a surprising June 9^th call-up a la Starlin Castro’s early call-up in a bad 2010 Cubs season. He’ll be a fantasy stud for years to come and break hearts when he leaves Baltimore in six years.

AL CENTRAL: This is going to be a lot closer than people think. It is clear that the Tigers are the class of the division, but Prince Fielder isn’t too much of a step up from Victor Martinez’s strong numbers last year. Also, this team was on pace for about 88 wins until they got some out of character performances from Doug Fister and others in September. I see them falling back a bit with poor defense and Justin Verlander just being amazing (rather than other-worldly). The White Sox were not as bad as everybody thought last year if you look at the win total they reached despite atrocious years from Dunn, Rios, and others. I think a fresh new Ventura era, low expectations, and resurgent years from last year’s disappointments help the Good Bad Guys on the south side keep things interesting late into the year. Look at what injuries did to the Twins from 2010 to 2011. Morneau and Mauer are showing a return to form late in Spring Training and I think they help this year’s team bounce back to respectability. The Indians finished where they did last year thanks to an insanely hot start. I think they’re about the same team they were last year, but improvement around them in the division. Everybody loves the Royals to make the leap up to second place, but it is not happening. I see another step forward but they won’t seriously contend until somebody other than Bruce Chen is leading their rotation. Fantasy Prediction: Eric Hosmer will impress, Mike Moustakas will disappoint.

AL WEST: Albert freakin’ Pujols. Tom Verducci’s Sports Illustrated article has me drinking the Pujols kool-aid (now that he’s out of the NL Central, that doesn’t hurt). Look for a top-3 MVP finish for Pujols, but fourth-starter Ervin Santana and superior Angels rotation decide this division. The Rangers almost miss out on the playoffs due to an intense race with teams in the AL East, but ultimately their all-around solid team give them a chance to chase a third straight World Series trip. Yes, the A’s sold off most of their big names this offseason, but they always manage to remain competitive in that division. I think Jarrod Parker and Cespedes provide some excitement and Oakland gains some momentum when Bud Selig finally resolves the insane territorial rights struggle and approves a 2015 move to San Jose sometime in mid-August. The Mariners are building a nice young core, but are still 3 years away. The good news? Youth movements in Seattle and Oakland/San Jose, combined with the budgets of Texas and Los Angeles (of Anaheim, of California) forecast an delightfully competitive division beginning in 2014. Except the AL Astros. Fantasy Prediction: Ichiro is the best Japanese player in the division with a .300 season, 30 steals, and 80 RBI. Yu Darvish performs like a decent fourth starter in his first year in MLB.

AL PLAYOFFS: Magical things can happen in that travesty of a Tampa Bay ballpark when it all comes down to one game. And I like three Rays starters (Price, Schields, Moore) in a one-game playoff, whereas Texas lacks a true Ace. Tampa Bay over Texas in the (what should be a 3-game) new wildcard round. Verlander wins two games but Los Angeles over Detroit in vintage Pujols series with great Angels pitching. Michael Pineda is healthy and rolling in the postseason after missing the first three months with shoulder tendonitis, but Kuroda and Nova are lit up as Tampa Bay defeats New York in five. Both teams have the pitching, but the Angels have more fire power: Los Angeles takes down Tampa Bay in six. The Angels return to the World Series a decade later.

NL EAST: Mark Simon from ESPN’s Stats & Information team said on a recent ESPN Baseball Today podcast that teams that win 100 games average a decline of about 8 wins the following season. Average. Injuries to the reigning division champs help prove that money can buy happiness for Miami as the Marlins’ spending binge rockets them from worst to first in the same fashion of the 2006-2007 Cubs. Ozzie Guillen, a new ballpark, and healthy seasons from Hanley Ramirez and Josh Johnson, deliver a division title built on speed, defense, and pitching. The Nationals make the playoffs. While I see a Gio Gonzalez failing to live up to his trade-hype, Edwin Jackson finally lives up to his potential with a strong season. A rotation built on the young arms of Strasburg, Jordan Zimmerman, Jackson and Gonzalez nearly delivers the division to Washington. And now we get to the Phillies, whose rotation can’t make up for the age and injuries in their lineup. Fredi Gonzalez will be fired after the Braves barely squeak our a .500 season and two more of their young arms go down with major arm injuries. The Mets are significantly better than their record suggests, they finish with strong records against the rest of the NL, but just beat up by the other four teams in the east. Fantasy Prediction: Don’t draft Gio Gonzalez; he is going to miss Oakland’s ballpark and speedy outfield defense. He’ll be a spot-starter for fantasy leagues and a decent fourth-starter for the Nats. Do draft Carlos Zambrano with your last pick, because Big Z will bounce back in a contract year.

NL CENTRAL: I will finally concede that this division is clearly the weakest of the six divisions, but I think the NL as a whole will be a lot closer this year (shown in my win projections). I like what the Cardinals did to replace Pujols with Berkman moving to first and Beltran improving their outfield defense and providing a strong offensive presence in the middle of their order. I think John Mozeliak finds a key acquisition (perhaps Roy Oswalt) to improve the rotation depth with Chris Carpenter’s injury, and a veteran team gets the job done close race. The Brewers also make a big splash near the trade deadline as pleasant surprise Matt Gamel and a healthy season from Rickie Weeks cover the loss of Prince Fielder just fine. Zack Greinke and Yovani Gallardo help a little bit too. The Reds just miss out because they let Bronson Arroyo pitch one too many games. Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer are rebuilding, but they put together a collection of players that is competitive and appeases Chicago fans as they wait for 2014 or 2015. Chris Volstad makes the Zambrano trade look like a win-win for everybody and this year’s Cubs resemble last year’s Mets: a team most think is bad, but finishes closer to .500 than you would have thought. The Pirates are getting better, but their pitching is just awful. A.J. Burnett will be their “Ace” when he comes back, but the rest of the rotation regresses significantly (see: the second half of last year). The highlight of the Astros’ season will be the games in which they wear cool throwback uniforms from their days as the Colt .45s (as well as the retro rainbow jerseys). This team will be the “LASTros” for the next few seasons as they get thrown to the wolves of the AL West powerhouses next year. Fantasy Prediction: Matt Gamel good, Aramis Ramirez mediocre, Soriano traded to the AL (Cubs eat 90% of the money) and hits 30+ homers.

NL WEST: Another tight race out west. The Giants return to the top behind their elite rotation for one final division crown for this core. The Diamondbacks overachieved last year and will just miss out on the post season because Ian Kennedy runs out of miracles and their young core takes last year’s success for granted. The Dodgers have quietly been better advertised these past few seasons and a financial stable new ownership has them competing for the division into late August. The Rockies resemble those potent offensive teams of the 90s who just don’t have an Ace or two to carry them over the hump. The Padres are punting this season and everybody knows it. The whole division transforms over the offseason with some major acquisitions for the Dodgers. I like the Dodgers and Dbacks to fight for this division over the next few years, with the Friars joining the mix in 2014. Fantasy Prediction: Marco Scutaro likes Coors field, Matt Kemp enters next year as a top-10 guy (not top-5), and Tyler Colvin has some insane numbers for two weeks in September.

NL PLAYOFFS: A home playoff game is excites the capital, but Zack Greinke gets it done as the Milwaukee takes down Washington. Mike Matheny lacks Tony LaRussa’s postseason fairy dust and San Francisco beats St. Louis in four. Aramis Ramirez gets excited about the playoffs and helps Milwaukee sweep Miami. Madison Bumgarner is electric as San Francisco edges Milwaukee in seven to setup a rematch of the 2002 world series ten years later.

WORLD SERIES: Great pitching, but the Giants run out of luck on offense. Pujols gets two in a row as the Los Angeles Angels win easily in five games.

AWARDS:

AL MVP - Evan Longoria
AL CY YOUNG - David Price
AL ROOKIE - Matt Moore
AL MANAGER - Robin Ventura

NL MVP - Justin Upton
NL CY YOUNG - Zack Greinke
NL ROOKIE - Yonder Alonso
NL MANAGER - Ozzie Guillen